Monday Service Play Thread 01/02/2023

[BuzzKill]

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[dough]

Lawrence NFL

4* Crush Play - Bengals

 

[dough]

Lawrence CFB

Rose Bowl - Penn St

 

[dough]

Burns CFB

5% UTAH ML

 

[dough]

Doc Bowl GOY

Miss St

 

[stevelew1]

Doc Bowl GOY

Miss St

Win one for the kipper speech before the game-has there ever been a coach died before a big game?

 

[bribux]

englandbet uk
ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE
Sheffield Wed – Cambridge Utd
Sheffield Wed -1.5

 

[bribux]

pickstennis
WTA – SINGLES: ADELAIDE (AUSTRALIA)
Liu – Hon Under 20.5

 

[BuzzKill]

Spartan

CFB BOWL Game of Year!

#278 Illinois -1.5

**CFB Bowl Game of the Year**

Nothing is a lock guys and those of you who have been with me for any length of time know I loathe and despise that word. I will say my eyes lit up when I saw this match up posted. Then when the number was published, I felt like a kid at Christmas. I pumped the brakes and did my due diligence. Thankfully it checked all the boxes and it is full steam ahead. I know when Ryan Walters left Missouri to take over as DC as Illinois it was their gain and Mizzou's loss. I hear people rave about Barry Odom and what a sharp DC he was, or is. No discredit to Odom but Walters has it on him. He has it on most. I do not expect Illinois to hold onto him long. Anyway, he built up the Illinois defense in pretty short order. Now they get to have a month to game plan for Mike Leach and his air raid offense. And we all know Leach never has and likely never will deviate from what he likes to do on offense. And his past bowl history does nothing to inspire confidence. No, the Illini will not light up the scoreboard here. But they won't have to. I expect Illinois to for the most part throttle that Bulldogs offense. I also have heard from voices I trust that the locker room was getting away from Leach as the season wound down. I am skeptical just how motivated this Bulldog team will be. On the flip side by all accou¡nts Illinois is embracing this opportunity. We have all seen how important that is once the things kick off. Some teams just sleep walk through these things. Some come out all jacked up but once they are hit in the mouth have no real stomach for a fight. Unless Illinois just is snake bit by turnovers they should take care of business here for us. I am going with them as my one & only bowl game of the year.

Many sincere thanks as always guys. Best of luck and let's get 2023 off to a flying start. Steve

ADDED NOTE: Obviously a horrible situation with Mike Leach. Just when you think you've seen it all. I am staying with the release guys. I have given it thought and obviously I felt strongly enough about the game to tag it as I did. Nobody knows for certain how this will affect the Bulldogs actual play on the field. It simply is not something that makes me move off the game. That might strike some as cold hearted. Not my intent at all. I feel terribly for Coach Leach and the family. But clearly I felt it was necessary to come on here with a statement. Take care. Steve

AND ADDED NOTE PART 2: Might be the, no, make that the strangest Bowl I have ever had a large wager on. I personally am not buying out of it. Now Ryan Walters gets the head coaching job at Purdue. While I am happy for him as he has earned, it it adds another wrinkle to this thing. But this is still his defense guys. They will not change the strongest part of their entire team. No reason. But I just wanted to emphasize once again I am staying with this all the way.

 

[BuzzKill]

Teddy Covers

E% Big Ticket Bowl 50-24 Heater!

#278 Illinois +2

E% Big Ticket: Take Illinois (#278)

The death of popular Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach is driving the mainstream narrative for this game; a ‘win one for the Gipper’ type of thought process. I’m not buying that argument one iota. We’ve got a clear ‘bet-on’ and a clear ‘bet-against’ for this game, setting us up for the first 5% Big Ticket Report of 2023.

When Mississippi State faced a quality defense this season, the Air Raid offense didn’t work. LSU shut them down: 16 points and 289 total yards. Kentucky shut them down: 17 points and 225 total yards. Alabama shut them down: 6 points and 293 total yards. Georgia shut them down: 19 points and 308 total yards. Heck, even Ole Miss contained this offense: 24 points and 336 total yards. All the big numbers Mississippi State put up this year came against the lesser defenses that they faced. This offense DID NOT WORK when facing a top notch stop unit.

Illinois has a top notch stop unit, plain and simple. Brett Bieliema’s team was as tough as nails on that side of the football, and this is very much a statement game for the long suffering Ilini program. In 12 games this season, the Illini allowed more than 23 points once. They held bowl teams like Michigan to 19, Minnesota to 14, Iowa to 6 and Wisconsin to 10. This secondary is loaded with NFL caliber talent; a top unit that is more than capable of controlling this game, just like they’ve done all season – that’s why Illinois is playing in their biggest bowl in decades.

The loss of Mike Leach won’t help the Bulldogs in terms of game planning for the Illini. On an ‘off field distractions’ scale, this one is pretty high. And the Air Raid offense has not fared particularly well off a long layoff. Mike Leach’s teams in bowls produced 20, 12, 17, 28 and 21 points in his last five bowls at Washington State: 1-4 SU and ATS. Last year, the Bulldogs lost to Texas Tech 34-7 as -10 favorites in their bowl. This is a ‘rhythm’ offense that hasn’t played since Thanksgiving Night. No surprise here if it’s an ugly showing for the Bulldogs in early start action on Monday, worthy of a ‘step-up’ sized wager! Big Ticket: Take Illinois

Line Parameter: 5% at pk or as an underdog, 4% at -1 or higher

 

[BuzzKill]

King Creole

E* Over 52.5 or lower Utah/Penn State

 

[BuzzKill]

JM Sports

10* January Bowl GOM

#278 Illinois -1

10* #278 Illinois Fighting Illini (-1) over Mississippi State Bulldogs —

One of the biggest factors in this game is the players that will be missing in the Reliaquest Bowl. There aren’t as many names amongst these two teams, but Mississippi State will be without Dillon Johnson and Rara Thomas. That is a huge loss for an offense that has relied heavily on it’s passing game.

Mississippi State ranks 130th in rushing offense, but they rank 11th on the season in the passing attack. The issue is that Dillon Johnson and Rara Thomas are 2 essential pieces to that pass attack, and this offense as a whole. Those two players account for 23% of the team’s receptions, 24% of the teams receiving yards, and 20% of the teams passing TDs (all 7 are Rara). They both rank inside the top 4 on the team in receptions and rank in the top 7 in receiving yards. Rara Thomas is the only receiver on the roster with over 500 yards this season, plus Dillon Johnson is the 2nd leading rusher on the team!

While Illinois’s defense has been nearly impossible to beat on the season. They rank 6th against the pass, so they should be in a good situation, even if the team was at full strength, but they rank 8th in rush defense. That may be even more essential if Mississippi State feels the need to attempt to shift their focus to the rush with the missing pieces to the passing puzzle.

The Illini are 7-0 on the road over the L2Y against teams that are completing 58% or higher, of their passes, holding those opponents to just 11 PPG. But after the 1st month of the season, they are 7-0 ATS on the road regardless of the opponent quality over the last 2 seasons. This year alone, they are 4-1 ATS on the road, and putting up nearly 28 PPG, while allowing under 13!

The Illini had a tough end to the season, but Bret Bielema is 11-1 ATS on the road after losing 3 of the L4 games. I expect this defense to step up big and make a name for the B10 against the SEC. An impressive feat, despite Mississippi State’s opt-outs.

 

[BuzzKill]

Dave Cokin

FEATURED MONDAY BOWL PLAY

3% Mississippi State-Illinois under 46

 

[BuzzKill]

Doc Sports

H unit GOY

Mississippi State -1.5

 

[BuzzKill]

Greg Shaker

C* Buffalo/Cincinnati U49.5

 

[BuzzKill]

Ralph Michaels

LSU 1st Half (-7) : buy the hook if necessary
Rating: 3%

Tulane Over (62.5)
Rating: 4%

 

[BuzzKill]

Double Dragon

G-UNITS- MISS ST. -1 vs illinois (1/2 - 12pm)
G-UNITS-TULANE +3 (-130) vs usc (1/2 - 1pm)
G-UNITS- UTAH -2.5 vs penn st. (1/2 - 5pm)

E-UNITS-LSU -14 (-120) vs purdue (1/2 - 1pm)
E-UNITS- LSU / PURDUE OVER 56 (1/2 - 1pm)

 

[BuzzKill]

Sharp Totals Club

C*Purdue/LSU Under 57.5

 

[BuzzKill]

Roc Sheridan

10* Purdue-LSU under 56
10* Tulane +2
10* Penn State +2

10* Cincinnati Bengals +1

 

[BuzzKill]

Las Vegas Cris

D% Buffalo Bills -110
C% Penn State +3

C% Philadelphia Flyers -108